China’s Countermeasures and Global Market ImpactTariff Escalation

China’s Countermeasures and Global Market Impact
Tariff Escalation: China imposed retaliatory tariffs (34%–84%) on U.S. goods, prompting Trump to raise duties on Chinese imports to 125%14. This escalation risks disrupting $500B+ in bilateral trade2.
Market Volatility:
Stock Declines: U.S. indices (S&P 500 -3.5%, Nasdaq -4.3%) and oil prices (-3%) dropped sharply39, with Asian markets initially rallying on tariff pauses before renewed declines19.
Recession Risks: JP Morgan raised global recession odds to 60%, citing trade war impacts2.
Sector-Specific Disruptions:
Tech: High-end iPhone prices could surge to $2,300 if tariffs pass through2.
Manufacturing: Stellantis and GM face layoffs and plant closures2.
Agriculture: U.S. farm exports to China are suspended, hitting farmers2.
Long-Term Risks:
Growth Slowdown: China’s GDP growth could drop by 2.5 percentage points2.
Supply Chains: Companies are relocating production to avoid tariffs, increasing costs28.
Global markets remain volatile as negotiations and countermeasures unfold139.