JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings beat, but NII outlook trimmed

JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings beat, but NII outlook trimmed

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock slipped 0.9% in Tuesday premarket trading after the Wall Street giant trimmed its guidance for 2026 firmwide net interest income (NII). Q1 earnings and revenue, though, both topped the average analyst estimates, driven by growth across the bank's businesses combined with a lower provision for credit losses.

Firmwide, the bank expects NII of ~$103B, market dependent, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus of $104.6B and its previous outlook of $104.5B. The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2026 NII, excluding markets, of ~$95B.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also still expects 2026 adjusted expenses of ~$105B. Card service net charge-off rate is still expected to be ~3.4%.

Q1 EPS of $5.94, topping the average analyst estimate of $5.51, increased from adjusted EPS of $5.23 in Q4 2025 and EPS of $5.07 in Q1 2025.

Adjusted revenue of $50.5B, topping the $48.9B consensus, rose from $46.8B in the prior quarter and $46.0B a year ago.

Q1 return on common equity improved to 19% from 15% in Q4 2025 and 18% in last year's Q1.

Provision for credit losses was $2.51B, lower than the Visible Alpha consensus of $3.05B, compared with $4.66B in the previous quarter and $3.31B a year ago.

Net interest income (managed) of $25.5B, exceeding the Visible Alpha consensus of $25.3B, grew from $25.0B in Q4 and $23.4B in last year’s Q1.

JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) total loans at March 31, 2026, edged up to $1.50T from $1.49T at Dec. 31, 2025. Deposits, at $2.68T, rose from $2.56T at the end of Q4.

Q1 noninterest expense of $26.9B vs. $26.2B Visible Alpha estimate, compared with $24.0B in Q4 and $23.6B in last year’s Q1.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon continued to see a remarkably resilient consumer but also noted risks overhanging the economy. "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy," he said. "Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment, and the Fed's asset purchases. At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks — such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices."

Q1 revenue and net income by segment:

Consumer & Community Banking net revenue of $19.6B rose 1% Q/Q and 7% Y/Y; net income of $4.98B jumped 37% Q/Q and 12% Y/Y.

Commercial & Investment Banking revenue of $23.4B climbed 21% Q/Q and 19% Y/Y; net income of $9.04B surged 24% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y

Investment Banking fees of $2.9B grew 28% Y/Y. Markets & Securities Services revenue of $13.0B rose 19% Y/Y. Markets revenue of $11.6B increased 20% Y/Y. Fixed Income Markets revenue of $7.1B gained 21% Y/Y, on strong client activity in commodities, credit and currencies & emerging markets, as well as continued strength in securitized products. Equity Markets revenue of $4.5B increased 17% Y/Y.

Asset & Wealth Management revenue of $6.37B slipped 2% Q/Q and rose 11% Y/Y; net income of $1.78B fell 2% Q/Q and increased 12% Y/Y. Assets under management came to $4.8T, up 16% Y/Y, and client assets of $7.1T increased 18%, driven by higher market levels and continued net inflows.

Danil Sereda, Investing Group Leader for Beyond the Wall Investing, points out that margins appear to be softer. "The noninterest expenses grew by 14% Y/Y while the revenue went up by 10% YoY, so the margins are getting a bit weaker. Even though this quarter’s NII was up, it looks like NII tailwinds are fading, and future quarters could be flatter/down if rates move lower from here."

Sereda continued, "I can't say that JPM's Q1 release was ugly; it was rather a bit cautious. The post-earnings dip doesn't look too deep (as I'm writing this, JPM is down 1.8% on premarket), and I think it can reverse when the market opens. On the bullish side, I liked the fact that the growth was broad-based in double digits, and JPM's capital returns are still top-notch ($4.1B dividends + $8.1B net buybacks). If I had to rate JPM again following this release, I'd keep my Buy in place."